So where are we?
Well as always there are multiple points of view. Deniers say exactly where we should be. The IPCC says somewhere just starting up the slow gentle climb.
Climate scientists seem to agree 0.8C higher than we were some years ago. Climate scientists also seem to agree we are actually at the start of something. The only disagreement seems to be what the something is.
A fairly full agreement seems to be reached that it isn't as warm as it should be. There isn't a lot of hope in that though because what seems to be keeping us cooler is a combination of a fairly weak sun and aerosol wastes we've pumped into the atmosphere.
I'm quite willing to be corrected but it seems this has reduced warming by around 0.4Watts per square metre.
Sounds good eh?
Well not really. Bar for these negatives we would be about 1.4C warmer and that's getting into the really noticable changes area.
The other we problem is that the sun is waking up again and we are working at reducing aerosols in the atmosphere. Seems kind of foolish you say. Well yes it does, although another wee problem is why there are so many mucky things up there. You see there is a chemical called Hydroxil in the atmosphere which seems to be a sort of supercleaner. It seems to mix with the muck up there and convert it into muck which can get washed out.
It is incredibly difficult to measure and work with as it doesn't last long and is or seems to be a bit in decline though one theory thinks that might be to do with slightly less ultra violet light just at the minute.
With the sun waking up that might stirr up the Hydroxil and reduce the aerosols, giving warming a mighty kick up the jacksy.
So not all wonderful on the stuff in the atmosphere stuff then. No I hear you say, we can't put that much into the atmosphere to affect things like that. It's huge and we're small.
Allow me to introduce Thomas Midgely. Never heard of him? No real surprise. He has the dubious honour of possibly being the most destructive human organism ever.
He was a chemist who had a couple of brilliant ideas. The first was to put lead into petrol to stop engines knocking. It worked but poisoned thousands many years later.
His other big idea might have killed off the species but for a stroke of luck, an old machine and a dedicated scientist.
Thomas Midgely invented Freon. The stuff that cooled fridges and air conditioners. The stuff that destroyed the ozone layer over Antartica. By luck and good science it was spotted and Freon was banned before we all were overdosed on ultra violet radiation.
And if you think that's old news, think again as the ozone hole still appears over the Antartic and now also over the Arctic.
The consensus at present seems to be that we are at the start of a potentially bumpy ride. The oceans are warming and expanding. The atmosphere is warming and average global temperatures are going up.
But we just had an incredibly cold winter in Europe.
Nice try but no cigar. One of the nasty effects of climate change is that extremes become more extreme.
Texas also had a very nasty hot period last summer with temperatures above 100F for more than 40 consecutive days.
South East England is heading into a drought, just declared because of two consecutive dry years.
lets finish off today with a bit of linguistics as it's one that wearies me immensely.
Lets stop talking about global warming and start talking about climate change because that's what it is.
Lets stop talking about skeptics. They are outright deniers and the veneer of the misuse of the word skeptic just gives them an attempt at setting themselves up as the moderate middle, which they are not.
By the way, to be clear and fair, I'm completely opposed to them and also have fixed views.
Lets stop patronising about the difference between climate and weather. Weather is what you get every day, climate is just lots of weather repeating itself.
Lets stop talking about "fixing" climate change. Some of you will know the story of Cnut and that's what fixing climate change is like
Lets stop talking about uncertain science. the only uncertainty is how bad it gets.
Finally and MOST IMPORTANTLY lets stop listening to governments leading in conjunction with business. They will only lead you to the next election.
We need in the words of Mother Theresa to do it ourselves, person to person.
Keep reading please and as always comments are welcome.
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